Daily briefing
Reference rates have moved; policy levels have not
EUR/USD and USD/JPY reference rates are both lower than the observations in the preceding briefing. Japan’s latest BIS policy observation has a newer date but the same reported rate. The tracked inflation, labour and GDP figures are unchanged. The charts end on their stated reference date, not the publication date.
Compare with the previous daily edition. This page retains the evidence available when it was prepared.
What changed
No material change in the tracked macro observations since the preceding briefing. Reference-rate charts may contain a newer daily observation.
USD · United States
A higher policy range, with slower quarterly growth
Observed
The federal funds target range is 3.75% to 4.00%, effective 17 Sept 2026.
Headline CPI rose 3.4% year on year in August 2026. The unemployment rate was 4.1% in August 2026.
Real GDP grew 1.5% annualised quarterly in Q2 2026.
Interpretation
The higher target range matters for relative policy comparisons. The latest quarterly growth estimate also shows that the pace of expansion has slowed from the preceding quarter.
Counter-evidence
Payroll employment increased and the latest unemployment rate was unchanged from the previous month. Slower quarterly GDP growth is not the same as a broad contraction.
Scope and limitations
The US GDP headline is annualised. Compare it with other economies only after accounting for that convention.
These releases show actual observations, not whether an outcome exceeded market expectations.
EUR · Euro area (21 countries)
Policy tightened as annual inflation rose
Observed
The ECB deposit facility rate is 2.50%, effective 16 Sept 2026.
All-items HICP inflation was 3.2% year on year in August 2026. Real GDP grew 0.6% quarter on quarter in Q2 2026.
The unemployment rate was 6.4% in July 2026.
Interpretation
The latest annual inflation reading is higher than the preceding month. The quarterly GDP series also shows a pickup from the preceding quarter, providing economic context alongside the policy change.
Counter-evidence
The unemployment rate was unchanged from the preceding month. The different indicators cover different periods and should not be read as a simultaneous acceleration.
Scope and limitations
This comparison uses the euro area with its current country grouping and the current HICP classification. Older datasets may use a different coverage or classification.
JPY · Japan
Positive growth and lower unemployment, with policy data lag
Observed
The latest BIS policy-rate observation is 1.00% for 22 Sept 2026. Its reported level is unchanged from the preceding briefing.
Nationwide all-items CPI rose 1.9% year on year in August 2026.
The unemployment rate was 2.4% in July 2026. Real GDP grew 0.4% quarter on quarter in Q2 2026.
Interpretation
Quarterly output expanded and unemployment fell in the latest monthly comparison. These are useful domestic conditions to read alongside the last reported policy rate.
Counter-evidence
Quarterly growth was slower than in the preceding quarter. The CPI measure shown is nationwide all-items inflation and does not replace the central bank’s broader assessment.
Scope and limitations
BIS disseminates daily policy observations with a lag. This figure is the last reported observation and does not establish whether a newer central-bank announcement has occurred.
The latest CPI release uses the current index base; the annual calculation uses observations from that same base.
From currencies to pairs
EUR/USD: A daily rebound within a lower reference rate since the last briefing
The US policy range is higher and both economies reported positive quarterly growth. The table converts the annualised US rate, but national seasonal and calendar-adjustment differences remain. These observations should not be collapsed into a single currency ranking.
Pair evidence, counter-evidence and limits
Observed evidence
The ECB reference rate was 1.1403 USD per EUR on 25 Sept 2026. It rose from the preceding daily reference observation but remained below the reference rate in the preceding briefing.
The US target range is 3.75% to 4.00%, compared with the ECB deposit rate of 2.50%.
The latest quarterly GDP observations are 0.6% quarter on quarter for the euro area and 0.37% quarter on quarter (converted) for the United States.
Counter-evidence
Euro-area annual inflation has risen, while US headline inflation remains higher in the latest readings. Neither observation on its own establishes the next policy decision or the next exchange-rate move.
Scope and limits
The policy instruments differ: a US target range and an ECB deposit facility rate. Euro-area GDP is seasonally and calendar adjusted; US GDP is seasonally adjusted and annualised. The displayed conversion removes annualisation, not those other methodological differences. The exchange-rate chart is a daily reference series.
The latest reference-rate change does not identify its cause or establish how much of the published macro backdrop was already reflected in prices.
USD/JPY: A lower reference rate alongside unchanged reported policy levels
The recorded policy rates and inflation levels differ substantially. Treat the Japan policy comparison as dated context because the BIS series can lag a new announcement.
Pair evidence, counter-evidence and limits
Observed evidence
The same-date ECB cross rate was 157.590 JPY per USD on 25 Sept 2026, below both the preceding daily reference observation and the reference rate in the preceding briefing.
The US target range is 3.75% to 4.00%. The latest BIS Japan policy observation is 1.00% for 22 Sept 2026.
Headline inflation is 3.4% year on year in the United States and 1.9% year on year in Japan for their latest reported months.
Counter-evidence
Japan’s latest unemployment rate fell and its quarterly economy expanded. A lower reported policy rate is not enough to characterise the whole domestic backdrop.
Scope and limits
The chart derives USD/JPY from two ECB rates on the same day. It contains daily reference observations, not executable quotes or intraday candles.
The latest reference-rate change does not identify its cause or establish how much of the published macro backdrop was already reflected in prices.
Revisions and corrections
No source-value revisions are recorded against the preceding briefing. Later provider revisions do not rewrite this snapshot.
Structured explanations were prepared with Codex and checked against the referenced observations. Automated checks verify definitions, calculations and references; they do not prove an interpretation correct.