Markets / EUR/USD

EUR/USD

A lower reference rate alongside unchanged macro evidence

Prepared Observation dates vary by sourcePermanent briefing
USD/JPY →
What the evidence says

What changed

No material change in the tracked macro observations since the preceding briefing. Reference-rate charts may contain a newer daily observation.

Interpretation revised. The pair assessment differs from the preceding briefing. Read both versions alongside their evidence. Compare the earlier assessment.

Daily reference rate
1.1460 USD per EUR
18 Sept 2026 · 1.1460 USD per EUR
1.12861.14421.15971.175322 Jun 202618 Sept 2026
Observation date · USD per EURDaily reference. Not a live quote.

EUR/USD uses the ECB USD-per-euro reference observation. Source and calculation

Inspect all chart observations
EUR/USD daily reference observations
DateUSD per EUR
18 Sept 20261.1460
17 Sept 20261.1481
16 Sept 20261.1537
15 Sept 20261.1539
14 Sept 20261.1551
11 Sept 20261.1592
10 Sept 20261.1616
9 Sept 20261.1652
8 Sept 20261.1614
7 Sept 20261.1622
4 Sept 20261.1622
3 Sept 20261.1615
2 Sept 20261.1578
1 Sept 20261.1590
31 Aug 20261.1596
28 Aug 20261.1643
27 Aug 20261.1645
26 Aug 20261.1669
25 Aug 20261.1662
24 Aug 20261.1664
21 Aug 20261.1699
20 Aug 20261.1681
19 Aug 20261.1605
18 Aug 20261.1576
17 Aug 20261.1593
14 Aug 20261.1567
13 Aug 20261.1534
12 Aug 20261.1545
11 Aug 20261.1540
10 Aug 20261.1555
7 Aug 20261.1535
6 Aug 20261.1542
5 Aug 20261.1554
4 Aug 20261.1515
3 Aug 20261.1535
31 Jul 20261.1485
30 Jul 20261.1476
29 Jul 20261.1380
28 Jul 20261.1367
27 Jul 20261.1389
24 Jul 20261.1377
23 Jul 20261.1392
22 Jul 20261.1408
21 Jul 20261.1418
20 Jul 20261.1426
17 Jul 20261.1435
16 Jul 20261.1467
15 Jul 20261.1406
14 Jul 20261.1405
13 Jul 20261.1424
10 Jul 20261.1430
9 Jul 20261.1435
8 Jul 20261.1404
7 Jul 20261.1433
6 Jul 20261.1415
3 Jul 20261.1448
2 Jul 20261.1399
1 Jul 20261.1383
30 Jun 20261.1394
29 Jun 20261.1406
26 Jun 20261.1401
25 Jun 20261.1342
24 Jun 20261.1340
23 Jun 20261.1392
22 Jun 20261.1456

TradingView Lightweight Charts™ · Copyright (c) 2026 TradingView, Inc. Attribution and terms

The score, explained

Balanced alignment: Mixed · -0.7 / 10. Snapshot 20 Sept 2026. This is a disclosed research rule, not a probability or forecast.

Technical0.0Inspect chart and inputs →Fundamental-1.4Inspect chart and inputs →COT-1.5Inspect chart and inputs →Sentiment proxy+0.8Inspect chart and inputs →
Technical conditions
ConditionMeasurementVote
Price vs MA20-1.185 %-1
MA20 vs MA50+0.536 %+1
MA50 change over five observations+0.078 %0

ECB reference observations through 18 Sept 2026. Equal votes use a ±0.1% neutral band. RSI is context and adds no weight.

Relative macro conditions
InputEURUSDContribution
Policy-rate difference+2.500Deposit facility rate · 2026-09-16+3.875Target-range midpoint · 2026-09-17-3.4
Growth momentum2026-Q2+0.600pp change within the economy-0.148pp change within the economy+3.0
Labour momentum2026-070.000pp change within the economy+0.200pp change within the economy-1.0

Policy levels are percentages. Growth compares changes in non-annualised quarterly growth; labour compares improvements in unemployment over three months. Columns use the same macro periods. GDP adjustment methods still differ.

Read the frozen macro evidence and original release links →

Futures positioning and sentiment proxy
CurrencyLeveraged net / open interestNon-reportable long / short
EUR-3.06%53.8% / 46.2%
USDQuote referenceNo inferred USD position

Position date 15 Sept 2026. Euro futures are quoted in USD per EUR, matching the direction of EUR/USD. Non-reportable shares describe contracts, not broker retail sentiment.

COT and the proxy share 20% of the balanced total, split 60% / 40%. Technical conditions contribute 40%, macro conditions 40%. Opposing inputs stay visible. Full calculation, source dates and limitations →

The two sides of the pair

EUR and USD economic comparison
FactorEURUSD
Policy2.50%16 Sept 2026Source & definition3.75%–4.00%17 Sept 2026Source & definition
Inflation3.2% year on yearAugust 2026Source & definition3.4% year on yearAugust 2026Source & definition
Labour6.4%July 2026Source & definition4.1%August 2026Source & definition
Growth0.6% quarter on quarterQ2 2026Seasonally and calendar adjustedSource & definition0.37% quarter on quarter (converted)Q2 2026Seasonally adjustedOfficial: 1.5% annualised quarterlySource & definition

These are different policy instruments and statistical definitions. Dates are shown beside each value. GDP comparisons use non-annualised quarterly growth; the US conversion is labelled.

Observed evidence

What complicates the picture

Keep these limits in view