Markets / USD/JPY

USD/JPY

A higher reference rate, with the policy comparison still dated

Prepared Observation dates vary by sourcePermanent briefing
EUR/USD →
What the evidence says

What changed

No material change in the tracked macro observations since the preceding briefing. Reference-rate charts may contain a newer daily observation.

Interpretation revised. The pair assessment differs from the preceding briefing. Read both versions alongside their evidence. Compare the earlier assessment.

Daily reference rate
157.888 JPY per USD
18 Sept 2026 · 157.888 JPY per USD
151.673156.285160.897165.51022 Jun 202618 Sept 2026
Observation date · JPY per USDDaily reference. Not a live quote.

USD/JPY is derived from same-date ECB JPY-per-EUR and USD-per-EUR observations. Source and calculation

Inspect all chart observations
USD/JPY daily reference observations
DateJPY per USD
18 Sept 2026157.888
17 Sept 2026155.692
16 Sept 2026155.049
15 Sept 2026155.005
14 Sept 2026154.549
11 Sept 2026154.037
10 Sept 2026154.175
9 Sept 2026153.270
8 Sept 2026154.297
7 Sept 2026154.750
4 Sept 2026156.247
3 Sept 2026156.014
2 Sept 2026159.596
1 Sept 2026160.164
31 Aug 2026159.727
28 Aug 2026159.684
27 Aug 2026159.390
26 Aug 2026159.071
25 Aug 2026159.235
24 Aug 2026159.122
21 Aug 2026158.697
20 Aug 2026158.762
19 Aug 2026159.087
18 Aug 2026159.701
17 Aug 2026159.225
14 Aug 2026159.013
13 Aug 2026159.329
12 Aug 2026159.091
11 Aug 2026159.203
10 Aug 2026158.641
7 Aug 2026158.336
6 Aug 2026157.832
5 Aug 2026157.590
4 Aug 2026157.412
3 Aug 2026156.680
31 Jul 2026160.235
30 Jul 2026162.940
29 Jul 2026163.682
28 Jul 2026163.913
27 Jul 2026163.640
24 Jul 2026163.822
23 Jul 2026163.474
22 Jul 2026163.070
21 Jul 2026162.743
20 Jul 2026162.384
17 Jul 2026162.352
16 Jul 2026162.196
15 Jul 2026162.388
14 Jul 2026162.218
13 Jul 2026162.141
10 Jul 2026161.872
9 Jul 2026162.414
8 Jul 2026162.487
7 Jul 2026161.891
6 Jul 2026162.339
3 Jul 2026161.146
2 Jul 2026161.584
1 Jul 2026162.708
30 Jun 2026162.436
29 Jun 2026161.862
26 Jun 2026161.652
25 Jun 2026161.850
24 Jun 2026161.684
23 Jun 2026161.534
22 Jun 2026161.775

TradingView Lightweight Charts™ · Copyright (c) 2026 TradingView, Inc. Attribution and terms

The score, explained

Balanced alignment: Mixed · -0.2 / 10. Snapshot 20 Sept 2026. This is a disclosed research rule, not a probability or forecast.

Technical-3.3Inspect chart and inputs →Fundamental+3.5Inspect chart and inputs →COT-2.1Inspect chart and inputs →Sentiment proxy-0.1Inspect chart and inputs →
Technical conditions
ConditionMeasurementVote
Price vs MA20+0.663 %+1
MA20 vs MA50-1.437 %-1
MA50 change over five observations-0.411 %-1

ECB reference observations through 18 Sept 2026. Equal votes use a ±0.1% neutral band. RSI is context and adds no weight.

Relative macro conditions
InputUSDJPYContribution
Policy-rate difference+3.875Target-range midpoint · 2026-09-17+1.000Last BIS policy observation · 2026-09-15+5.0
Growth momentum2026-Q2-0.148pp change within the economy-0.100pp change within the economy-1.5
Labour momentum2026-07+0.200pp change within the economy+0.100pp change within the economy0.0

Policy levels are percentages. Growth compares changes in non-annualised quarterly growth; labour compares improvements in unemployment over three months. Columns use the same macro periods. GDP adjustment methods still differ.

Read the frozen macro evidence and original release links →

Futures positioning and sentiment proxy
CurrencyLeveraged net / open interestNon-reportable long / short
USDQuote referenceNo inferred USD position
JPY+4.27%50.7% / 49.3%

Position date 15 Sept 2026. Yen futures are quoted in USD per JPY. Their direction is inverted for USD/JPY. Non-reportable shares describe contracts, not broker retail sentiment.

COT and the proxy share 20% of the balanced total, split 60% / 40%. Technical conditions contribute 40%, macro conditions 40%. Opposing inputs stay visible. Full calculation, source dates and limitations →

The two sides of the pair

USD and JPY economic comparison
FactorUSDJPY
Policy3.75%–4.00%17 Sept 2026Source & definition1.00%15 Sept 2026Last BIS observation; reported with a lagSource & definition
Inflation3.4% year on yearAugust 2026Source & definition1.9% year on yearAugust 2026Source & definition
Labour4.1%August 2026Source & definition2.4%July 2026Source & definition
Growth0.37% quarter on quarter (converted)Q2 2026Seasonally adjustedOfficial: 1.5% annualised quarterlySource & definition0.4% quarter on quarterQ2 2026Seasonally adjustedSource & definition

These are different policy instruments and statistical definitions. Dates are shown beside each value. GDP comparisons use non-annualised quarterly growth; the US conversion is labelled.

Observed evidence

What complicates the picture

Keep these limits in view