Factor scorecard

Price, direction and the factors behind them.

Bullish

Upward alignment

AUD/USD

USD per AUD
0.71202+0.09%

Price below MA20-0.67%

0.729220.705590.68196Crossed below MA2018 Jun 202618 Sept 2026
18 Sept 2026 · 0.71202 USD per AUD
PriceMA20MA503 months
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Bullish alignment+3.4 / 10

Technical + macro + positioning support the upward tilt.

Price below MA20-0.67%MA20 above MA50+1.19%MA50 rising+0.26%

Reference: 18 Sept 2026. Positions: 15 Sept 2026. Macro publication: 20 Sept 2026.

The score measures rule alignment, not a probability or forecast.

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Mixed

No clear combined direction

EUR/USD

USD per EUR
1.14600-0.18%

Price below MA20-1.18%

1.177081.151951.12682Crossed below MA2018 Jun 202618 Sept 2026
18 Sept 2026 · 1.14600 USD per EUR
PriceMA20MA503 months
View analysis
Mixed alignment-0.7 / 10

The factors are too weak in combination for a directional bias.

Price below MA20-1.18%MA20 above MA50+0.54%MA50 broadly flat+0.08%

Reference: 18 Sept 2026. Positions: 15 Sept 2026. Macro publication: 20 Sept 2026.

The score measures rule alignment, not a probability or forecast.

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GBP/USD

USD per GBP
1.33442-0.24%

Price below MA20-1.32%

1.375501.340811.30613Crossed below MA2018 Jun 202618 Sept 2026
18 Sept 2026 · 1.33442 USD per GBP
PriceMA20MA503 months
View analysis
Mixed alignment-0.2 / 10

Positioning up; macro down. The total remains Mixed.

Price below MA20-1.32%MA20 above MA50+0.32%MA50 broadly flat+0.04%

Reference: 18 Sept 2026. Positions: 15 Sept 2026. Macro publication: 20 Sept 2026.

The score measures rule alignment, not a probability or forecast.

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USD/JPY

JPY per USD
157.888+1.41%

Price above MA20+0.66%

166.042158.591151.141Crossed above MA2018 Jun 202618 Sept 2026
18 Sept 2026 · 157.888 JPY per USD
PriceMA20MA503 months
View analysis
Mixed alignment-0.2 / 10

Macro up; technical + positioning down. The total remains Mixed.

Price above MA20+0.66%MA20 below MA50-1.44%MA50 falling-0.41%

Reference: 18 Sept 2026. Positions: 15 Sept 2026. Macro publication: 20 Sept 2026.

The score measures rule alignment, not a probability or forecast.

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ECB reference rates · Daily observationsSources & methods ↗

Factor heatmap

Compare scores and inspect the evidence.

Positive alignmentNegative alignmentNeutralContext: no directional vote

Select a market to explore its chart, or a factor to inspect the evidence.

Markets with current technical, positioning and macro inputs.
OverviewTechnicalPositioningMacroContext
MarketBiasScoreSaveTrendMA20 / MA50MA50 slopeCOTCrowd proxyPolicyGDPLabourInflation
AUD/USDAUDUSDBullish+3.4+3.3+1+1+6.2+0.5+2.4+10.0-5.0AUD 3.5% / USD 3.4%
EUR/USDEURUSDMixed-0.70.0+10-1.5+0.8-6.9+10.0-5.0EUR 3.2% / USD 3.4%
GBP/USDGBPUSDMixed-0.20.0+10+3.0+0.1-0.60.0-5.0GBP 3.1% / USD 3.4%
USD/JPYUSDJPYMixed-0.2-3.3-1-1-2.1-0.1+10.0-5.00.0USD 3.4% / JPY 1.9%

Scores use a −10 to +10 scale; the MA diagnostic columns show −1/0/+1 votes already included in Trend. Only complete, current scores appear. Missing factors never become zero.

All measurements, dates and source links

AUD/USD

Aliases: AUDUSD. Broker instruments can have different prices and contract terms. Explore AUD/USD on TradingView ↗

Trend: +3.3

Average of price/MA20, MA20/MA50 and the five-observation MA50 slope. Daily reference observations, not intraday broker quotes.

Reference: 2026-09-18Source and method ↗
MA20 / MA50: +1

MA20 vs MA50: +1.186%. A ±0.1% neutral band produces −1, 0 or +1. This explains the trend factor; it is not additional weight.

Reference: 2026-09-18Source and method ↗
MA50 slope: +1

MA50 change over five observations: +0.262%. A ±0.1% neutral band produces −1, 0 or +1. This explains the trend factor; it is not additional weight.

Reference: 2026-09-18Source and method ↗
COT: +6.2

Leveraged funds net is +12.40% of open interest. Scale by 20 percentage points and cap at ±10. Selected contract: AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (232741). Futures exposure can include hedging and does not establish a spot/CFD forecast.

Reference: 2026-09-15Source and method ↗
Crowd proxy: +0.5

Non-reportable positions are 52.4% long and 47.6% short. The pair-oriented balance is scaled to ±10. This is a futures-positioning proxy, not broker retail sentiment. It shares the positioning budget with COT.

Reference: 2026-09-15Source and method ↗
Policy: +2.4

Policy-rate difference: +0.475 pp. A higher base-currency policy setting contributes positively. This is a carry-context heuristic, not a forward exchange-rate estimate.

Reference: 2026-09-10 / 2026-09-17Source and method ↗Source and method ↗Source and method ↗
GDP: +10.0

Growth momentum: +0.281 pp difference in change. Compare acceleration within each economy over the same two quarters. US annualisation is removed; national seasonal/calendar methods remain different.

Reference: 2026-Q2Source and method ↗Source and method ↗Source and method ↗
Labour: -5.0

Labour momentum: -0.171 pp difference in improvement. Falling unemployment contributes positively. Both sides use the same reference month and a three-month change.

Reference: 2026-07Source and method ↗Source and method ↗Source and method ↗
Inflation: AUD 3.5% / USD 3.4%

Annual inflation context for AUD and USD. Higher inflation has no unconditional positive or negative market implication and adds no score.

Reference: 2026-07 / 2026-08Source and method ↗Source and method ↗

EUR/USD

Aliases: EURUSD. Broker instruments can have different prices and contract terms. Explore EUR/USD on TradingView ↗

Trend: 0.0

Average of price/MA20, MA20/MA50 and the five-observation MA50 slope. Daily reference observations, not intraday broker quotes.

Reference: 2026-09-18Source and method ↗
MA20 / MA50: +1

MA20 vs MA50: +0.536%. A ±0.1% neutral band produces −1, 0 or +1. This explains the trend factor; it is not additional weight.

Reference: 2026-09-18Source and method ↗
MA50 slope: 0

MA50 change over five observations: +0.078%. A ±0.1% neutral band produces −1, 0 or +1. This explains the trend factor; it is not additional weight.

Reference: 2026-09-18Source and method ↗
COT: -1.5

Leveraged funds net is -3.06% of open interest. Scale by 20 percentage points and cap at ±10. Selected contract: EURO FX - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (099741). Futures exposure can include hedging and does not establish a spot/CFD forecast.

Reference: 2026-09-15Source and method ↗
Crowd proxy: +0.8

Non-reportable positions are 53.8% long and 46.2% short. The pair-oriented balance is scaled to ±10. This is a futures-positioning proxy, not broker retail sentiment. It shares the positioning budget with COT.

Reference: 2026-09-15Source and method ↗
Policy: -6.9

Policy-rate difference: -1.375 pp. A higher base-currency policy setting contributes positively. This is a carry-context heuristic, not a forward exchange-rate estimate.

Reference: 2026-09-16 / 2026-09-17Source and method ↗Source and method ↗Source and method ↗
GDP: +10.0

Growth momentum: +0.748 pp difference in change. Compare acceleration within each economy over the same two quarters. US annualisation is removed; national seasonal/calendar methods remain different.

Reference: 2026-Q2Source and method ↗Source and method ↗Source and method ↗
Labour: -5.0

Labour momentum: -0.200 pp difference in improvement. Falling unemployment contributes positively. Both sides use the same reference month and a three-month change.

Reference: 2026-07Source and method ↗Source and method ↗Source and method ↗
Inflation: EUR 3.2% / USD 3.4%

Annual inflation context for EUR and USD. Higher inflation has no unconditional positive or negative market implication and adds no score.

Reference: 2026-08 / 2026-08Source and method ↗Source and method ↗

GBP/USD

Aliases: GBPUSD. Broker instruments can have different prices and contract terms. Explore GBP/USD on TradingView ↗

Trend: 0.0

Average of price/MA20, MA20/MA50 and the five-observation MA50 slope. Daily reference observations, not intraday broker quotes.

Reference: 2026-09-18Source and method ↗
MA20 / MA50: +1

MA20 vs MA50: +0.322%. A ±0.1% neutral band produces −1, 0 or +1. This explains the trend factor; it is not additional weight.

Reference: 2026-09-18Source and method ↗
MA50 slope: 0

MA50 change over five observations: +0.038%. A ±0.1% neutral band produces −1, 0 or +1. This explains the trend factor; it is not additional weight.

Reference: 2026-09-18Source and method ↗
COT: +3.0

Leveraged funds net is +6.01% of open interest. Scale by 20 percentage points and cap at ±10. Selected contract: BRITISH POUND - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (096742). Futures exposure can include hedging and does not establish a spot/CFD forecast.

Reference: 2026-09-15Source and method ↗
Crowd proxy: +0.1

Non-reportable positions are 50.4% long and 49.6% short. The pair-oriented balance is scaled to ±10. This is a futures-positioning proxy, not broker retail sentiment. It shares the positioning budget with COT.

Reference: 2026-09-15Source and method ↗
Policy: -0.6

Policy-rate difference: -0.125 pp. A higher base-currency policy setting contributes positively. This is a carry-context heuristic, not a forward exchange-rate estimate.

Reference: 2026-09-14 / 2026-09-17Source and method ↗Source and method ↗Source and method ↗
GDP: 0.0

Growth momentum: -0.052 pp difference in change. Compare acceleration within each economy over the same two quarters. US annualisation is removed; national seasonal/calendar methods remain different.

Reference: 2026-Q2Source and method ↗Source and method ↗Source and method ↗
Labour: -5.0

Labour momentum: -0.133 pp difference in improvement. Falling unemployment contributes positively. Both sides use the same reference month and a three-month change. UK values cover rolling three-month windows; the US comparison uses an average of those same three monthly rates, identified by the window end month. Statistical estimation methods still differ.

Reference: 2026-07Source and method ↗Source and method ↗Source and method ↗
Inflation: GBP 3.1% / USD 3.4%

Annual inflation context for GBP and USD. Higher inflation has no unconditional positive or negative market implication and adds no score.

Reference: 2026-08 / 2026-08Source and method ↗Source and method ↗

USD/JPY

Aliases: USDJPY. Broker instruments can have different prices and contract terms. Explore USD/JPY on TradingView ↗

Trend: -3.3

Average of price/MA20, MA20/MA50 and the five-observation MA50 slope. Daily reference observations, not intraday broker quotes.

Reference: 2026-09-18Source and method ↗
MA20 / MA50: -1

MA20 vs MA50: -1.437%. A ±0.1% neutral band produces −1, 0 or +1. This explains the trend factor; it is not additional weight.

Reference: 2026-09-18Source and method ↗
MA50 slope: -1

MA50 change over five observations: -0.411%. A ±0.1% neutral band produces −1, 0 or +1. This explains the trend factor; it is not additional weight.

Reference: 2026-09-18Source and method ↗
COT: -2.1

Leveraged funds net is +4.27% of open interest. Scale by 20 percentage points and cap at ±10. The JPY futures sign is inverted for USD/JPY. Selected contract: JAPANESE YEN - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (097741). Futures exposure can include hedging and does not establish a spot/CFD forecast.

Reference: 2026-09-15Source and method ↗
Crowd proxy: -0.1

Non-reportable positions are 50.7% long and 49.3% short. The pair-oriented balance is scaled to ±10. This is a futures-positioning proxy, not broker retail sentiment. It shares the positioning budget with COT.

Reference: 2026-09-15Source and method ↗
Policy: +10.0

Policy-rate difference: +2.875 pp. A higher base-currency policy setting contributes positively. This is a carry-context heuristic, not a forward exchange-rate estimate.

Reference: 2026-09-17 / 2026-09-15Source and method ↗Source and method ↗Source and method ↗
GDP: -5.0

Growth momentum: -0.048 pp difference in change. Compare acceleration within each economy over the same two quarters. US annualisation is removed; national seasonal/calendar methods remain different.

Reference: 2026-Q2Source and method ↗Source and method ↗Source and method ↗
Labour: 0.0

Labour momentum: +0.100 pp difference in improvement. Falling unemployment contributes positively. Both sides use the same reference month and a three-month change.

Reference: 2026-07Source and method ↗Source and method ↗Source and method ↗
Inflation: USD 3.4% / JPY 1.9%

Annual inflation context for USD and JPY. Higher inflation has no unconditional positive or negative market implication and adds no score.

Reference: 2026-08 / 2026-08Source and method ↗Source and method ↗
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Original research

Monthly studies of instruction activity, with sources and limits beside each finding.

  1. Latest research · August 2026August’s calendar made activity look quieter: total instructions fell 4.8% versus July, but rose 1.6% on a standardised week. Entry activity rose 8.1%, with FX and Gold gaining share.Read the report
  2. From the archive · July 2026Calendar-standardised entry activity rose 13.6%. FX's share increased from 20.1% to 30.0%, while overall Automation Bias finished near neutral at +1 and individual markets differed.Read the report